Deloitte have just released their 9th annual Media Predictions for 2010, and although no predictions are 100% accurate, Deloitte’s are usually well thought-through and researched so well worth taking note of.
The headlines are as follows:
- 90% of all TV watched and 80% of all audio-content consumed in 2010 will be via traditional broadcast. ‘Linear’ TV and Radio will continue to be the norm in the foreseeable future despite the continued growth of ‘on-demand’ services. Deloitte’s rationale is that ease of use and inertia are the strongest factors behind traditional TV and radio consumption habits being slow to change.
- Online advertising will continue to grow both in real terms and as a proportion of advertising spend. Search, social networking and other performance-driven models will lead the way. Magazine and Newspaper advertising revenues are the most likely to be effected as marketers re-align their spends.
- 2010 will see an explosion of eBooks consumed but not necessarily on the new raft of eReaders being released. eReaders are seen as having too high a pricepoint to achieve rapid penetration. The rapid growth in eBook consumption will be via existing devices such as laptops, netbooks, smartphones (yes – apparently people read books on smartphones) and the new generation of nettabs.
- Newspapers and magazines will continue to make noises about charging readers for online content but few will follow their words up with actions in 2010. The fact that the loss in revenues from the decline in print subscriptions due to free online access dwarfs online advertising revenues is the main driving force behind the desire to change. However, the most attractive payment mode, micropayments for time/article limited access is not workable at the moment, as people are unlikely to want to go through the time and effort of credit/debit card payments for such small amounts.
- The convergence of TV and internet will continue, but not fuelled by internet-enabled TVs but rather through consumers attaching existing devices, such as wifi-enabled laptops and games consoles, to their television. The 10 year renewal cycle for televisions and the difficulty of delivering keyboard/mouse style functionality through a remote control are sited as the main barriers.
- 3DTV penetration will be negligible in 2010 but the mid-term prognosis is good as long as a single platform becomes dominant and the film industry keeps up it’s flow of 3D movies to keep the momentum going.
The main consideration to take into account as you’re weighing up these predictions and the probable impact on your business is that they apply to the mass market, and the behaviour of premium and luxury consumers could differ markedly from the above.
For example, with significantly lower TV consumption than the mass market, luxury consumers are more likely to find on-demand TV attractive as they cherry-pick their viewing for the limited leisure time that they have. In addition, publications that appeal to a wealthier audience are predicted to have more success with paid models for online content, so therefore are more likely to make the jump first.
My advice would to keep reading the Cream blog (sign up to RSS or subscribe to our email) to keep abreast of the implications of the latest media developments for luxury and premium brands.
For a full copy of Deloitte’s Media Predictions for 2010, email firstname.lastname@example.org.